Monthly Archives: March 2022

Repost By Request: Essay on Markets Decoupling – it’s happening now

Repost by multiple requests, because it’s literally happening. So, might as well review and catch the Johnny-come-latelys up.

As I have been saying all along, and is now referred to as The Barnhardt Axiom, if you can’t stand in front of it with an assault weapon and physically defend it, then it isn’t yours, and probably never was.

(Ahem. Cough. 401ks. Cough.)

Originally penned and posted on December 15, ARSH 2011, seven weeks after MF Global.

3. Finally, a very simplistic explanation of how the cash commodity markets are soon going to decouple from the futures markets. This is a little complex, but stay with me. I think this is important to understand because none of us who have lived our whole lives in the U.S. have ever seen a market disintegrate.

The threat (or promise) of delivery upon expiration is what keeps the futures markets tethered to the cash markets. Up until now, if an unreasonably wide spread between the futures price and the underlying physical commodity market got too out of whack, a process called †arbitrage† would kick in. Arbitrage is when a party simultaneously buys and sells on two separate but related markets in order to capture an inefficient spread between those two markets.

I†m going to use precious metals as my example commodity because there are alot of metals guys reading this, and because the metals markets will be the big tell in term of when decoupling and thus total futures market disintegration is upon us. But these examples apply to all of the physical commodities.

Let†s say that the physical silver market is trading far lower than the silver futures price. This is what is called a WEAK BASIS. The BASIS is the relationship between the cash market and the futures market and is very simply defined as (CASH minus FUTURES). If cash silver can be bought at $25.00 per ounce and the futures are at $30.00 per ounce, the cash is $5.00 under the futures. When cash is under the futures, this is called a WEAK basis.

Up until now, what would a metals trader do? In very simple terms, he would buy the cash silver at $25.00 per ounce and then simultaneously sell the futures at $30.00. Because he has short-sold the futures, he could hold the contract to expiry and then deliver the $25.00 cash silver he bought to make good on the contract and receive his $30.00 price. So his simple net profit would be $5.00 per ounce. As many traders saw this spread and simultaneously executed this same strategy of buying the cash and selling the futures, what effect would this have? Right. It would cause the cash-futures spread to move back in toward convergence by pushing the futures price down (lots of sellers) and propping the cash market up (lots of buyers).

Now the opposite scenario: a STRONG basis. Let†s say cash silver is trading at $32.00 and the futures are trading at $28.00. A trader might take physical silver that he has in inventory and sell it in the cash market, and then immediately take those proceeds and buy back and equal number of ounces in the futures market and take delivery. Since the same number of ounces in the futures market cost $4.00 per ounce LESS, he would end up with the same number of ounces in his inventory PLUS $4.00 per ounce in CASH in his pocket. If he and many other traders saw this condition and they all sold cash silver and bought the futures, this would, again, converge the spread between the cash market and the futures market.

The lynchpin that is holding this dynamic together and keeping the futures markets tied to the underlying cash market is the fact that the futures contracts are deliverable, and a trader can either deliver or take delivery of actual physical silver via his futures position.

Are we seeing a problem yet? The futures markets have lost their viability and trustworthiness because of the MF collapse and theft. At some point in the not-too-distant future, people everywhere are going to realize that the delivery mechanism is not reliable. Heck, just holding cash and/or positions in a futures account is no longer reliable. The the market itself is not reliable, traders will no longer attempt to arbitrage these basis spreads because the risk to the trader that the rug will be pulled out from underneath them is simply too great.

And in the metals markets, the delivery process itself is . . . um . . . shall we say, easily corrupted? When you †take delivery† of physical metals, it doesn†t get sent to your house. All you get is a certificate saying that X number of ounces are being held in a certified vault somewhere with your name on them. After the MF collapse, that sounds like a joke, right? A CERTIFICATE with my NAME ON IT? Yeah. That really is how it works.

When the arbitrageurs finally lose all confidence in the markets, the cash market will decouple from the futures because no one will be willing to take the risk of having their money, positions and/or physical metals stolen/confiscated. If no arbitrageurs are willing to trade these spreads † no matter how wide they may become † and thus there is no force causing the cash and futures to converge, we will see the basis spreads become extremely wide. As people flee the futures markets, the futures prices will drop, while the cash markets hold steady or even diverge and actually rise as all of the former paper players realize that physicals are the only remaining game to be played.

Watch for this. Watch for the gold and silver futures to sell off as people walk away from paper while the online cash dealers, seeing that market demand for their physical inventory is robust, begin to ignore the futures prices and hold their prices steady or even raise them. When you see this basis decoupling and absence of arbitrage, lo, the end is nigh. A parabolic spike is coming.

This isn’t World War Three. It is far, far worse. This is World War SODOMY.

I’ll open with a thoughtful email from a Nebraska wheat farmer:

Dear Miss Barnhardt,

My name is X and I will keep this short as I am sure you receive tons of emails. My family farms in Nebraska raises wheat. Lots and lots. When you count all the cousins..we farm thousands and thousands of acres. My question is this. Is not this entire war about the wheat? Remember in 2016 when wheat was like $3.80 per bushel because Russia dumped all that wheat that they had leftover from their bumper crop on the world market? It almost bankrupted American wheat farmers. If Putin combined his wheat exports with Ukraine’s exports in the near future (assuming he wins this conflict) and wheat got down to, say, $2.00 per bushel….then what? American farmers couldn’t even afford to start their tractors at that price. Maybe China gets all or alot of their ag products from a combined Russia/Ukraine. To prevent that I think America has no choice but to enter into a conflict with Russia? What are your thoughts?

Thank you,

X

Great email, great questions.

First, China is 95% self-sufficient in terms of wheat production. They are in no way dependent upon Russia/Ukraine for wheat.

Second, the objective of the Washington DC Deep State/New World Order is the total state control of all food production, so driving American farmers out of business once and for all via impossible energy and fertilizer input prices combined with policy-suppressed commodity prices is exactly what they want – with a potential added bonus of actual hunger in North America.  Americans have proved from the earliest days of the CoronaScam that they are zero threat to the Deep State/NWO oligarchy and can be coerced into anything including borderline suicidal acts and cult child sacrifice with shockingly minimal effort. After watching the Death Injection pogrom, can you IMAGINE what atrocities and auto-genocidal acts the American people could be coerced into doing if faced with actual starvation?

Now to the point of this essay.

THIS WAR, WHETHER YOU WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE IT OR NOT, IS FOUNDATIONALLY ABOUT THE GLOBAL RATIFICATION AND INSTALLATION OF SODOMY AS THE DOMINANT AND “NORMATIVE” MORAL HEGEMONY.

It is certainly true that there are other massive objectives, collectively called “The Great Reset”, revolving mostly around total economic control and human population reduction, but these are SECONDARY, again, whether you choose to believe this or not, to the agenda of sodomy in all its forms.

Simply look at how the Ukraine-Russia war is being framed.  It is the “freedom-loving, liberty-loving, righteous LGBTQ friendly” Ukraine against the “Christian theocrat anti-LGBTQ dictator” Putin (I still marvel at the insanity of this description).

“Freedom” and “liberty” are now explicit dogwhistles for SODOMY.  The “freedom” is the freedom to publicly engage in and advance sodomy, and to coerce others into the same – most especially children.

Sodomites, and really satan himself as the ultimate driver of these events, are DEMANDING that a global thermonuclear war be fought FOR THEM, in order to install a global regime of not merely tolerance of genital acts so utterly vile that even the demons themselves can’t stand to be around them due to their nature as angelic beings, but the DOMINANCE of the culture of Sodom.

At this point people ask, “But Ann, this makes no sense.  If the world is destroyed or nearly-destroyed by nuclear war and total societal collapse, these oligarchs and sodomites will have nowhere to go, nothing to do, no commodities, goods and services to consume.  Their lives will be every bit as destroyed as everyone else’s.”

And here again we have to pull that focus back and acknowledge the PRETERNATURAL as the primary driver of events.  Satan and the demons know that they have lost and that they will never, ever see God.  There is no hope for them.  They made their choice, and are eternally locked-in because they had SO MUCH INFORMATION about God – conceivably as much information as could possibly be conveyed short of the Beatific Vision Itself. And despite having such profound knowledge of God, knowing that HE IS existence itself, Infinite Goodness, Infinite Beauty and INFINITE LOVE, the demons, led by satan, utterly consumed with rage and jealousy at NOT being the vector of the Incarnation of the Second Person of the Triune Godhead, passed over in favor of a little Jewish girl so filled with humility that she was worthy to be the Mother of God and the Queen of Heaven, freely chose to reject and rebel against God, knowing that their choice was irrevocable.  It’s done.  So what is the point of the raging? What is the point of trying to destroy human souls? Why is satan gunning to see sodomy installed as the global hegemonic paradigm?

SPITE. Pure, unadulterated SPITE.

It could also be well-argued that the desire by both demons and men to see the world burn in a nuclear holocaust in order make the culture of sodom the dominant culture over the entire earth is a direct “revenge operation” for God’s destruction of the cities of Sodom and Gomorrah and three satellite villages.  Remember, the people of Sodom and Gomorrah, when they appeared as a mob at Lot’s house and demanded that Lot bring out to them the visitors he was lodging (angels, in fact), weren’t there to gang rape the visitors. They were there to DEMAND that the visitors RATIFY SODOMY. They were there to DEMAND that the visitors EXPLICITLY APPROVE, and even PARTICIPATE in sodomy with them.

DOES THIS SOUND FAMILIAR????

Now, let’s look at why a KGB agent with a history of murdering his political opponents, and who dumped his wife and took up with a gymnast, and is clearly addicted to facial mutilation, is being painted as a “Christian fundamentalist theocrat tyrant dictator”.

Putin has said the following things:

-Sodomy should not be publicly glorified, promoted or displayed.
-Children should not be exposed to or propagandized into sodomy.
-Children should not be trafficked and sold to sodomites under the guise of adoption (which is what ALL “gay adoption” is.)
-Men and women should get married to each other and have children.

That’s it, really. These points aren’t even exclusively Christian. Every one of these points falls under the Natural Law, which is why even atheists and pagans, up until just a few years go, almost universally held these items as givens.

If you are old enough, stop and think about YOUR perception of sodomy, say, thirty years ago when the big push in the media was just beginning.

Now just stop and consider where we are today. Speaking against sodomy is already criminalized as “hate speech” and “discrimination”.

And, to the point of this essay, the Sodogarchy (aka Globohomo) are literally, right now, as I type this, agitating for NUCLEAR WAR, first and foremost in EUROPE, which is, of course, the center of Christian Civilization, with Rome being the visible central locus of the One True Church. In order to install Sodogarchy as the dominant cultural milieu, Christianity must not only be infiltrated, but completely memory-holed. Every reminder of even the existence of Christianity must be PHYSICALLY destroyed.  The Church MUST be destroyed in every sense, both spiritually and physically. An explicitly sodomitical Antichurch MUST be erected to replace the True Church.

This infiltration and erection of a sodomitical Antichurch is the usurpation by Antipope Bergoglio and the monstrous Antichurch that he presides over. That’s why these things are just EVER SO SLIGHTLY IMPORTANT and CANNOT be shrugged off.

Ever been to Europe? Ever been to Italy? With a church every 50 yards? With sacred images on nearly every street corner, and on every other building? With art museums filled with room after room after room of paintings and sculptures of Christian subjects?

They want it gone. They want it all burned and pounded to ash and rubble in exactly the same way that God Almighty pounded to rubble and burned to ash Sodom and Gomorrah. They want it all utterly wiped from the earth so that all memory of it even existing will be wiped within a generation or two – assuming there is anyone left at all.

And why? SPITE. The sodomites, wallowing in the bloody porcine diarrhea of their Diabolical Narcissism, depravity and spirit of vengeance, want to drag down and destroy everyone and everything with them. They want to punish the world for 6000 years of “oppression” of sodomy. They want humanity to make atonement TO THEM, and to acknowledge their “superiority”.  Satan and the demons? They are at war with God Himself, even knowing that they are defeated, are so consumed with spite that they want as much collateral damage as possible and so they come after human beings, because the only way they can “hurt” God is by hurting us, and tricking us into joining them in their free choice to hate God, and thus in eternal damnation.

This isn’t World War Three. It is far, far, worse.

This is WORLD WAR SODOMY.

Let us end with the words of Our Lord Jesus Christ to Saint Catherine of Siena, Doctor of the Universal Church:

“They not only fail from resisting this frailty [of fallen human nature] . . . but do even worse as they commit the cursed sin against nature [sodomy]. Like the blind and stupid, having dimmed the light of their understanding, they do not recognize the disease and misery in which they find themselves. For this not only causes Me nausea, but displeases even the demons themselves, whom these miserable creatures have chosen as their lords. For Me, this sin against nature is so abominable that, for it alone, five cities were submersed, by virtue of the judgment of My Divine Justice, which could no longer bear them. . . . It is disagreeable to the demons, not because evil displeases them and they find pleasure in good, but because their nature is angelic and thus is repulsed upon seeing such an enormous sin being committed. It is true that it is the demon who hits the sinner with the poisoned arrow of lust, but when a man carries out such a sinful act, the demon leaves.”

–Saint Catherine of Siena, Doctor of the Universal Church, quoting Our Blessed Lord and Savior Jesus Christ  

Sodom and Gomorrah Afire, Jacob Jacobsz de Wet, ARSH 1680