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Baby Paige Burrito
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 22, AD 2008 12:03 PM MST
Good Morning!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 22, AD 2008 9:59 AM MST
AAARRRGGGHHH!!! Utter insanity. We're back into super-volatility and it is hard to keep within sight of being caught up. Grand Island was FANTASTIC, and I forgot to brag on Louisville - Louisville was fantastic too. I'm off to Regina, Saskatchewan to give the keynote at the Ranching For Profit Executive Link tomorrow. Corn has pulled all the way back to big, big support. Just look at a Dec chart and you will see what I mean. There was a big period of consolidation from April 1 to June 1 at the $6.00 level. We are perched on that right now. Many folks are calling and emailing asking if this is a buying opportunity. I can't guarantee that we will go back up, of course, but the cool thing is, if you buy here, you know exactly where to stop yourself out. That makes it a lot easier mentally. We do love to have things parameterized and defined, don't we? Thanks to one and all for keeping up with margin calls as the corn has broken. A client included the little drawing below in his envelope with his margin check, and it really tickled me.  Here is a FUN WITH MATH to keep you satisfied: JOPLIN, MO YESTERDAY SELL 861# top-quality steers @ $110.00 BUY 729# top-quality steers (calves) @ $102.00 Return on the gain = $1.54 per pound Excess Profit per head with a $1.20 cost of gain = $44.88 But you don't want those calves. Calves are a nightmare. They're all . . . fresh and, and . . . easily destressed. Yeah, you don't want those. Leave them for me. I'll take them, because after all, someone has to.
Starting Tuesday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 22, AD 2008 9:33 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Low-Carb Market Wrap
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 17, AD 2008 12:03 PM MST
A down day in the commodities. Cattle: DOWN. Feeders: DOWN. Grains: REALLY DOWN. Softs: DOWN. Energy: DOWN. Dow & S&P: UP!.
I'm off to the big school at Grand Island, NE. I'm driving I-80, also known as the Autobahn of North America. I should feel right at home. Nycki will be here tomorrow in my absence. I will be scare around here next week, too. I am doing a Ranching For Profit Executive Link up in Regina, Saskatchewan. Ah, the Prairie Provinces in summer. So nice.
I'm running behind, as usual. I'll try to post tomorrow from the Holiday Inn!
Starting Thursday Afternoon Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 17, AD 2008 11:57 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Low-Carb Market Wrap
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 16, AD 2008 12:21 PM MST
You know, every once in a while I have to pretend like I'm a commodity broker for a few days, just to keep on my game. Such has been the case since Monday, but no complaints, other than the standard whining about how there are several THOUSAND of you reading (or at least checking) this blog every day, but don't seem to be doing your business with me. I'm busy, but I ain't THAT busy! I will happily open new accounts, hence the "Account Forms" link to you immediate left. Cheers!
The grain complex appears to have put in the reversal that has been talked about since Monday. We opened lower and were led into higher territory by the wheat. Corn and beans happily followed suit. My Japanese Candlestick guru says that we tested not only structural chart support, but also bounced off the Fibonacci retracement plane.
(On an aside, if you want proof-positive that the US of A is the most culturally diverse and integrated land on planet Earth, just look at that last sentence. It contains the words Japanese, guru and Fibonacci . . . in one sentence . . . AND most of y'all rednecks reading this understand exactly what it means! Michelle Obama, why you hatin'? We ALL cool like that. Word.)
Cash trade is mostly done it seems for this week at $98ish, but they could stand to buy some more. Remember, it isn't the fat price that is the most critical. It is what we buy to REPLACE those fats. Do we blow our brains out on seven-weights at $120 or do we do like our friend in the Southern Plains and buy heavy heifers at $83. Don't be hatin' on the Playa. Just show the brother some love. Word.
Starting Wednesday Afternoon Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 16, AD 2008 12:06 PM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning and Jukebox Preload
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 10, AD 2008 9:40 AM MST
I am ready to head for Louisville, Kentucky for the big Bud Williams Marketing School in a bit. This will be the first school in the Bluegrass State. It should be fun. It seems like there is a salebarn every 15 miles in that part of the world. So good! Corn is down again today, but is holding the lows from Monday and Tuesday. There is a crop production report tomorrow morning before the open. Here's my take: we have pulled the corn back considerably in the last week and a half, and we have a rather large gap above us. Provided the report isn't uber-bearish, the technical bent is for a rally. But who knows? Not I, that's for sure. Here's a real-life trade sent in by an undisclosed human in an undisclosed location. These are real executions: SOLD 750# "good, put-together, 65% black) steers @ $111.25 Bought 510# "same quality" steers and bulls @ $107.00 Return on the gain = $1.20 per pound Excess Profit per head with a $1.00 cost of gain = $48.00 per head For tomorrow's Jukebox, I'm in a pickle. There are so many awesome "Kentucky" songs. But, I think I have settled on Elvis' "Kentucky Rain". The riff at the beginning is one of those unmistakable sounds. Within a quarter of a second, you know what song you are hearing. My brother and I used to listen to this song off of the "Pure Gold" album on a little Mickey Mouse record player. We had highly refined musical tastes, even as small children. As time has passed, I have become ever more refined, while Brian has been steadily coarsening ever since. It's funny how things work out. 
Starting Thursday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 10, AD 2008 8:55 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Starting Wednesday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 9, AD 2008 10:36 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Low-Carb Market Wrap
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 8, AD 2008 1:41 PM MST
AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
Busy, busy. Corn was limit down yesterday and opened 40-45 lower this morning. It came off of its lows and finished 23-24 lower. Significant support was indeed penetrated, but now we have an enticing gap above us, a less-than-stllar crop and $135 crude. Upside risk is still significant, IMHO.
(For those of you who aren't saavy to web jargon, IMHO is an acronym for "in my humble opinion". Its sibling is IMNSHO, which of course stands for "in my not-so-humble opinion". I would NEVER DREAM of using that one. Goodness.)
Fats were down hard yesterday, and followed through today. Despite the corn plummeting, the feeders have not rallied. Hope springs eternal for the possibility of common sense in the broad market. Oh, heck. Listen to me. Silly girl.
Okay addicts. Here's a little FUN WITH MATH from the SHOW ME THE MONEY state, Missouri:
SELL 702# top-quality steers at St. Joseph @ $120.00 on July 2nd. BUY 516# top-quality steers at Joplin @ 115.50 on July 7th. Return on the gain = $1.32 per pound Excess profit per head with a $1.00 cost of gain = $59.52

Starting Tuesday Afternoon Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 8, AD 2008 1:24 PM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
$102 cash trade in the South
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 3, AD 2008 11:16 AM MST
Okay. Cash trade at $102, the board has closed early, there is a cheeseburger somewhere with my name on it . . . I'm out!
See you Monday.
Good Morning and July 4th Jukebox!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 3, AD 2008 9:19 AM MST
Corn was the big mover yesterday, zooming to limit-up right on the close. It opened lower this morning, but is now trading steady-higher. Fats and feeders are quiet right now, waiting for the South to trade. Nebraska is mostly done at $160 and $100-$101. The South should see at least that kind of money. Everyone wants to get it over with so they can peel out for the July 4th weekend. Speaking of which, as is tradition, I post the Battle Hymn of the Republic every year on the 4th. It starts off very quietly, so turn your speakers up. It is my favorite patriotic song. The lyrics below, particularly the third stanza, reveal why . . . Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord: He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored; He hath loosed the fateful lightning of His terrible swift sword: His truth is marching on. I have seen Him in the watch-fires of a hundred circling camps, They have builded Him an altar in the evening dews and damps; I can read His righteous sentence by the dim and flaring lamps: His day is marching on. In the beauty of the lilies Christ was born across the sea, With a glory in His bosom that transfigures you and me: As He died to make men holy, let us die to make men free, While God is marching on. 
Starting Thursday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 3, AD 2008 9:09 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Low-Carb Market Wrap
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 1, AD 2008 2:54 PM MST
AAARRRGGGHHH!! I'm busier than a one-toothed man in a corn on the cob eating contest, but it is all good. Austin was fantastic (and HOT!). Corn was limit down yesterday and lower today, but today's action seemed well-supported. I think we might have just seen some profit-taking after yesterday's report (which saw increased acres) and are now poised to continue the uptrend. Here's a wonderful FUN WITH MATH that just makes me smile. I don't understand why a person wouldn't buy calves at the salebarn. If they are calves, that means they just came off their momma and are "fresh" in that sense. Bawling calves generally aren't "world travelers". They're a known quantity, and just a bit of structured exercise can remove that weaning stress. Look at this from yesterday's sale at OKC: SELL 617# top-quality heifers at $109.80 = $677.47 BUY 615# top-quality heifers (calves) at $91.63 = $563.52 Positive cash flow is $113.95 per head. Cut that in half to pay all costs and a little extra just to be cautious and you are $56.98 per head to the good. Seems like a no-brainer to me, but then a lot of things seem like a no-brainer to me. I, and my inflated ego, will see you tomorrow.
Starting Tuesday afternoon off right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - July 1, AD 2008 2:42 PM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning from Austin!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 27, AD 2008 7:46 AM MST
Just briefly before I begin the big Bud Williams Marketing School . . .
There is a fellow here who sold cattle last afternoon at $99. Corn broke out to new contract highs yesterday. Profit remains abundant - you just have to know what you're doing.
Okay, I'm off. Just wanted to post as my brother called last afternoon wondering if I was still alive. Sorry it has been so thin lately.
Starting Friday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 27, AD 2008 7:41 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Low-Carb Market Wrap
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 23, AD 2008 12:50 PM MST
Corn opened soft this morning and then reversed and finished higher. I think we have done all of the downside correction we need to do. The mini-break of the last few sessions was triggered by a consulting outfit projecting a higher than consensus corn acreage number. You can have all the acres you want, but if they're under water, uh, yeah. They're under water.
There was only light trade in the South late last week at $96 and the carryover has some spooked. I think we will be steady at worst this week. Feeders were soft following the corn reversal.
I love this:

Starting Monday Afternoon Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 23, AD 2008 12:29 PM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning and Jukebox!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 20, AD 2008 9:03 AM MST
Jukebox first. I need a Don Gibson fix. How about the rocking "Who Cares For Me"? So, so good. Feel free to dance.
Cattle are up hard today, as are all commodities by the looks of it. Funds are buying. Fats are up 200 and feeders are up 100-150. Corn is up a nickel. Nebraska has traded 50,000+ head at $94 but the south has held out. Good guess there. They may get $96.
Here is the super-fantastic FUN WITH MATH that I promised you yesterday. This is an actually executed trade that a yard in Oklahoma did last week. This utterly typifies what I am talking about on the feedlot side of the business. Profit is everywhere, even with $8.00 corn. You just have to have skill:
SELL 1140# fat heifers @ $93.00 BUY 1059# heifers at El Reno, OK @ 75.00 Return on the gain = $3.28 per pound. Excess profit per head with a $1.30 cost of gain = $160.38 per head Excess profit per head with a $2.00 cost of gain would be $103.68 per head Excess profit per head with a $3.00 cost of gain would be $22.68 per head
Starting Friday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 20, AD 2008 8:49 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Oh, yes.
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 19, AD 2008 1:46 PM MST
Good Morning!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 19, AD 2008 10:04 AM MST
Yes, I'm still alive. I've just been uber-busy. There are people blacking out and getting the nervous shakes from FUN WITH MATH withdrawal. Sorry about that. I'm still looking at an average of one appointment or contractor coming to the new house per day. I thought things would have slowed down a bit, but it is taking a while to get everything done. I did get my internet hooked up yesterday, so I will now be able to work and answer emails in the evenings again. That will be a big help. I have quite a backlog to get cleaned up. In brief, I don't think the high is in on the corn yet. In fact, I think it is possible that we could see a spike to as high as $10.00. No guarantees, of course, just acknowledging what is possible. I still think the fats have serious upside risk/potential from here, especially the Dec, Feb and April contracts. We are looking at gain costs in the $1.30 range, so you do the math . . . unless you don't know how, in which case you can click on my calendar page and we'll get that corrected in a big, fat hurry. I came across this picture while cleaning my cell phone and thought it was worth a re-post. Let's get those margin calls cleaned-up! Ha ha.  I will post the Jukebox AND a super-fantastic FUN WITH MATH tomorrow. Same Prairie Dog-Time, same Prairie Dog-Channel.
Starting Thursday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 19, AD 2008 9:44 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning and Jukebox!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 13, AD 2008 8:35 AM MST
First things first. Today's Jukebox is Johnny Cash singing "I Guess Things Happen That Way". Kinda like $7.50 corn. I guess things happen that way. We can either whine and sit around having a big, stupid, disgusting pity party, or we can go make money. Speaking of choosing between stupid pity parties or making money, I smell a hot, steaming FUN WITH MATH!!! Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, Monday: SELL 1150# fat heifers at $93.00 BUY 947# Med-Lrg 1-2 Heifers at OKC @ $88.00 Return on the Gain = $1.16 per pound Excess Profit per head with a $1.10 cost of gain = $12.18 This is called "Making Money". OR Sell 1300# fat steers @ $93.00 BUY 777# Med-Lrg 1 steers at OKC @ $108.50 Return on the Gain = $0.72 per pound LOSS per head with a $1.00 cost of gain = ($160.44) This is called "Losing Money". Please note that the steer gain cost is a dime cheaper than the heifer gain cost. The retun on the gain on the steer trade is $0.72 per pound. That means that even if the corn price dropped $3.00 per bushel from here, the trade would probably still lose money. This tells us that the price of corn is NOT the most critical factor determining profitability. It must be something else. Hmmm. What ever could it be? I know! It is MARKETING COMPETENCE, which is ultimately rooted in FOUTH GRADE ARITHMETIC, NOT forecasting or macro-economics. Just stop and think about it for a minute. All of the forecasting macro-economic analysts are telling you that profitability is impossible, and I, the lone voice of reason, am telling and irrefutably PROVING to you that profit is not only possible, but constantly present. The mainstream paradigm DOES NOT WORK. It is intrinsically flawed and diordered. Why, why, why persist within it just for the sake of "fitting in" with the herd? Is being able to comfortably mix at conventions and trade shows more important to you than the survivability of your operation? What would you rather do: Feed $8.00 corn at a profit or feed $3.00 at a loss? The choice, AS ALWAYS, is entirely yours.
Starting Friday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 13, AD 2008 8:13 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 11, AD 2008 10:01 AM MST
The weather forecast is for more rain over corn country, and that has shot the corn higher, flirting with limit bid (30 cents up).  Fats are modestly higher, and feeders are down 150. Aren't you glad you listened to me and put your cattle hedges in the feeders? Feb fats vs Jan feeders are now basically at even money, and the April fat-feeder spread is inverted. For my next trick, I will be sawing this rabbit in half. I'm performing here all week. Please tip your waitress generously. If you're in the mood to get REALLY, REALLY steamed, please seek out and find the lastest issue of BEEF Magazine. The feature article is called "The Prediction is Pain". They have 4 analysts whining about how horrible the cattle business is going to be for the next several years. I'm in quite a state over this. Here I go . . . ATTENTION CATTLE INDUSTRY ANALYSTS! Just because you have absolutely no clue what you are doing, thinking or talking about vis a vis the cattle industry and operating profitably and sensibly within it DOES NOT MEAN that there is no money to be made or that it is inherently, structurally "difficult". Dude, I don't understand gravity, but that doesn't mean that is doesn't exist or that life is intrinsically more difficult because of it. Given that, what you need to do is STOP TALKING. You aren't helping ANYONE. In fact, you are HURTING, HURTING, HURTING. You are establishing an expectation of mediocrity at best, and failure at worst. People in this industry are completely content to fail because YOU are TELLING them that they should EXPECT to fail. AAARRRGGGHHH!!!! This is the most profit-laden industry in the world and we are DYING because the so-called elite are functionally incompetent and spreading that incompetence like a virus. If you don't understand the cattle market and the rudimentary 4th grade arithmetic needed to easily navigate it, then shut up and sit down. Better yet, cough up your $500 bucks, fly down to Austin and I WILL TEACH YOU. See my calendar page. Love, Ann
Starting Wednesday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 11, AD 2008 9:13 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 10, AD 2008 8:15 AM MST
Kansas traded about 25,000 head at $93 yesterday as the lower board and ever-higher corn ascension got some people freaked. When was the last time we saw honest-to-goodness Monday trade? We are again seeing fats trading higher and feeders lower as this is being written. Now you all are starting to see why I have been railing about feeder-fat price relationships and recommending cross-hedging. I think we will see the feeders solidly discount to fats before the corn tops. Mathematically, the market has been demanding inversion for quite some time now. Whenever gain costs are higher than the fat price, the only way to be profitable is to buy back feeders at a lower price per pound than the fat selling price. That is not my opinion or forecast. It's just math, y'all.
We had a supply/demand report on the grains this morning and they dropped yields from 153.9 bu/acre down to 148.9 bu/acre and thus dropped the ending stocks number to 673 mbu from 736 mbu. Corn is now called to open 10 higher. $8.00 corn is NOT unrealistic.
Starting Tuesday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 10, AD 2008 8:07 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 5, AD 2008 9:10 AM MST
Cattle are up just a bit on some short-covering and technical trading. The cash arena is quiet, of course, after getting the trade completed Tuesday and Wednesday at $94.00-$94.50. Corn is up another dime and seems to be marching to $7.00 like Sherman's army marching to the sea. Look out, Atlanta. Here is a picture sent in from a friend of the blog in Central Illinois - the heart of corn country. He said that he got three inches of rain on Tuesday morning and another 4.5 inches on Tuesday night. Doesn't look too good, does it? There are still very reasonable and conservative ways to get corn needs protected AND there are very reasonable and conservative ways to get floors or partial floors underneath cattle. Hey backsliders, I'm not doing this completely out of Christian charity, you know. There are several thousand of you out there who read this blog religiously but aren't doing your business with me. What's up with that? Show a sister some love, y'all. Online account forms are the third link down on your left. 
Starting Thursday Morning off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 5, AD 2008 8:58 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 4, AD 2008 9:38 AM MST
As many of you have noticed, I'm drifting in and out of the office and am somewhat hard to catch this week. I am moving into a new home, and have been busier than a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest. Hopefully all the moving hoopla will be done by Friday, and then I can actually be at my desk all day every day. If you call and I'm gone, feel free to get my cell number from Katy or Nycki. I'm usually not doing anything more intense than waiting for some delivery, contractor or service professional to show up at the new shack to do some trivial moving-in task. Call any time.
Here's a blanket statement for my clients:
If you are short Feeder cattle calls (118, 120, 122, whatever), I would not roll them up right now. If the FC market has put in a top, you want to keep the lower strikes in place because they will bleed off faster AND you will save the expense of the roll itself. They made us sweat for a while (especially the 118 strikes!), BUT if the rally is exhausted, the best thing to do is stay put and recapture equity as the premiums bleed off.
Starting Wednesday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 4, AD 2008 9:20 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning & Monday Jukebox
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 2, AD 2008 8:11 AM MST
I'm back from Canada and what a lovely trip it was. The school was great (as always) and how I love Canadian summer! It didn't get completely dark until around midnight and the sun started to come back up at about 230am. I LOVE that. It was gloriously warm and I even was able to take a leisurely walk along the lilac-lined footpath overlooking the Saskatchewan River on Saturday night. Here is a picture of the group. This school was actually a spillover from the sold-out school in Saskatoon in February. We had an intimate group of 40. Up next is Austin, TX at the end of June. I still have room, so enroll today!  Cattle traded last week at $93.50-$96.00, but it is thought that money is built-in and we will open softer. Corn was weak-steady overnight. Here's a FUN WITH MATH from St. Joseph, MO from last week's sale: SELL 440# top-quality steers @ $143.00 BUY 333# top-quality steers @ 140.00 Return on the Gain = $1.52 per pound Excess profit per head with a $1.10 cost of gain = $44.94 per head. The truth is, with a $1.10 cost of gain, a guy could have bid all the way up to $153.50 on 333-weights against the 440# steers at $143.00. D'oh! Since I missed the Jukebox on Friday, let's listen to Johnny Horton's original "Honky Tonk Man". When my money's all gone, I'm on the telephone signin' "Hey, hey Mama, can your Daddy come home?"
Starting Monday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - June 2, AD 2008 7:53 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 28, AD 2008 9:24 AM MST
We're busy here getting ready for the big Bud Williams Marketing School up in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan this weekend. Fats are narrowly mixed and feeders are higher on the 12-lower corn market. Feeders were up 100+ going into the close last afternoon and then puked it all back to finish lower on the day. The feeders are up this morning, but aren't yet approaching yesterday's highs. It's a dance. A very strage, bizarre dance.
Starting Wednesday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 28, AD 2008 8:49 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning and Jukebox!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 23, AD 2008 9:32 AM MST
Good morning! Cash trade is done at $95 and the fats are strong, up 30-100. Feeders are steady and the corn is 5 higher. There is quite a bit of beef demand optimism for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, and it appears that $96 is the early expectation for next week's cash trade.
I'm loving these steer-heifer swap trades that are available right now. Here is a crazy one that involves playing the geographical spread along with the gender spread and the weight spreads. Yes, we can play three seperate spreads simultaneously in our markets. Could they be any better? Methinks not! Check it out:
SELL 611# top-quality steers at Ogallala, NE at $127.50 = $779.02 gross BUY 970# top-quality heifers at Joplin, MO at $81.00 = $785.70 gross Yes, you would have to write a check for $6.68 per head to make the swap, but, you are getting 359 pounds for that $6.68. If your gain cost is running $0.90, you just saved $323 per head in gain expense. To appease the whiners, we'll knock EIGHTY PERCENT off of that figure to cover every conceivable cost and value differential, and we're still $65 to the good. There isn't much more to say.
Today's Jukebox selection is in keeping with yesterday's meditation on the cosmos. Enjoy The Platters singing the classic "Twilight Time".
Starting Friday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 23, AD 2008 8:46 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Low-Carb Market Wrap
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 22, AD 2008 1:43 PM MST
Cattle were lethargic today and finished quietly. Grains were soft, with corn pulling back 10-11 and wheat dropping 30+. Old crop beans were down 24 and new crop was down 30. Crude oil finished $2.36 lower at $130.81 in the July contract. Cash expectations are for $95, which would be $0.50 to $1.00 up from last week. I found a new website today that I highly recommend. It is the "Astronomy Picture of the Day Archive". http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/archivepix.html This website posts a picture of some unspeakably gorgeous galaxy, nebula, cluster, planet, etc. with a brief description every day. They have been doing this daily since 1995 and the complete archive is available. As you peruse the pictures (and most of them are actual photographs, not artistic impressions - many from the Hubble telescope), remember that God made these things, the entire universe really, for US, for YOU. Like a small child holding a drawing up to his mother or father, the Creator of the Universe wants you to see what He made for you. And I think it is not too much for us to tell Him, "That is so beautiful. I love it. Thank you for making that for me." Here is a picture from March 29, 2008 on the list. It is galaxy NGC2541. "The heavens declare the glory of God; the sky proclaims its Builder's craft. One day to the next conveys that message; one night to the next imparts that knowledge." Psalms 19:2-3 We are the first generation that truly understands what that means. How incredibly humbling and awesome that is to think about.  That is so beautiful. I love it. Thank You for making that for me. Amen.
Starting Thursday Afternoon off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 22, AD 2008 1:22 PM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Reader Reply . . .
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 20, AD 2008 12:53 PM MST
Ann-
It is hard to build an inventory of 700# feeders as there are always too many good trades to be made before they get that big. I have a hard time getting them past 500# without taking the $50 per head profit.
Signed-
Captain America
Low-Carb Market Wrap
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 20, AD 2008 12:44 PM MST
We put back on a lot of what we lost yesterday, and feeders zoomed into the close despite a higher corn market. One Texas Panhandle feedloteer remarked that the North American feeding industry is evidently trying to completely destroy itself. I don't think it is that sinister. I just think they're all completely drunk. Heck, there's a convention going on somewhere, right? But what a sparkling opportunity for the guy who has feeders in inventory! Shazam! Katy and Nycki will be randomly switching off this summer. Today was Katy's first day, and here is a picture of Miss Paige hanging out by her Mom's desk with her toys and playpen, waving at the extremely weird person with the camera (which would be me). 
Starting Tuesday Afternoon Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 20, AD 2008 12:31 PM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Good Morning!
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 19, AD 2008 8:30 AM MST
Cash trade was steady at mostly $94.00 on Friday and the meaningless cattle on feed report took on a particularly meaningless timbre as half the gerbils running on the wheel - - oops, I mean ANALYSTS -- called it bullish and half of them called it bearish. I guess it just depended on what their personal spec position was on Friday afternoon. D'oh! I'm so bad. Really. Horrible. Note that I didn't even mention which direction the board is moving this morning. Mmmm. Doesn't really matter, so we won't waste the space. We'll save it for pictures of gerbils running on wheels - the truly important stuff!  HEY!! Let's do some FUN WITH MATH!! Let's sojurn up to lovely Valentine, NE and check out the following amazing trade from last week's sale: SELL 596# top-quality steers @ $135.16 = $805.55 BUY 811# top-quality heifers @ $97.00 = $786.67 Umm. This is so flagrant one struggles to even find a starting point, but here goes: If a guy makes this swap, he gets paid $18.88 per head to take home 215 pounds. So, right off the bat, we're looking at straight-ahead profit of $18 per head. Furthermore, the person in question now has no cost structure associated with the weight gain from 596# up to 811#. Let's say, very conservatively, that the person in question is running a gain cost of $0.95 per pound. That is a SAVINGS of $204.25 per head. So, tallying everything up, we have straight-ahead profit of $18 per head plus COG savings of $204 per head for a grand total of $222 per head. Now, to appease the miserable whiners who are bitter because we are stepping down from steers to heifers, let's cut that figure in HALF. Okay. Now we're at $111 per head to the good. Now, to appease the remaining whiners, let's charge an additional $40 per head in diesel and commission. As if. Now we're at $71 to the good. My work here is done. See my calendar page.
Starting Monday Morning Off Right
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 19, AD 2008 8:10 AM MST
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen
Consider Pandora's Box officially opened . . .
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - May 16, AD 2008 10:07 PM MST
A friend of the blog sent this little piece of Photoshopping in. Classic. I'm cramping from the laughter . . .

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